Oraculum: Blog

Honestly, infinite conversations and forecasts of some experts on crash of dollar and inevitable devaluation have tired. Fortunately, these experts can not scare even themselves. Many of them write articles for which someone has paid for expressing this opinion. Why pay for it? The reasons are many, and in each case its the own.
Some experts simply under on influence for a long time having developed the stereotypes, and not able to look at the problem with fresh eyes.

Calm down, while the oil and weapons paid for in dollars, the dollar is not in danger. But this, of course, only a superficial glance. This is one significant reason, but not the principal.

It's no secret that many countries use the dollar as a reserve currency for official reserves. Even if devaluation would be in America's interest, it will face very strong opposition of countries which have accumulated huge amount of dollars in state reserves. And it's countries are not small and not the last in the rankings influence on world events.

It is hard to imagine that, for example, China voluntarily agree to become poorer, and it is essential. China controlled though also communists, but controlled not crazy people. No one wants to be poorer and will make every imaginable and unimaginable measures to it has not happen. A time when America could not ignore the opinion of others irretrievably gone. Whether America will bicker and argue not only with friends and allies, but also with all other world? I think not.

At present stage of the world economy and with present principles of their interaction, the dollar exchange rate can fluctuate, but in a rather limited extent. These limits are formed proceeding from the economic interaction with the basic developed countries and world regions. First of all with Europe, as with the main economic competitor. And, of course, with Japan, and more recently with China.

Nobody wants adventurous in this field of relations. Too big Consequences. Nobody will admit rate fluctuations more than certain limits. Those who think otherwise, I advise you to remember about the joint currency intervention by major central banks in the forex market, when the rate of pair EUR/USD fell to 0.8. Not to mention about regular interventions of Bank of Japan.

Europe does not want the complete collapse of the part of the economy, which depends on exports to America. And this part is too great to ignore her.

Therefore, in the near future we will not see the sustainable levels of pair EUR/USD more 1.6, and the course of a pair of USD/JPY below 0.87. Who would not speaking about the other succession of events.

This, of course, only my personal opinion and nothing more. But it is correct.